May 15 Settlement Recap — Oil Surges as Iran Ceasefire Collapses

Friday, May 15, 2026 · COMEX / NYMEX / CBOT front-month settlements

The week's most polarizing session: WTI and Brent surged to multi-month highs after Trump called the Iran ceasefire "on massive life support," while gold, copper, corn, and soybeans all retreated as double-digit inflation data locked in a hawkish Fed trajectory for the year. The dollar gained every day of the week.

At a glance

Commodity	Contract	Settlement	Day change	Primary driver
COMEX Gold	GCM6 (Jun)	$4,543.6/oz	−$141.7 (−3.02%)	Hot CPI/PPI → dollar & real yields surge
NYMEX WTI	CLM6 (Jun)	$105.66/bbl	+$4.49 (+4.44%)	Trump rejects Iran deal; 3-month high hit
NYMEX Brent	BZN6 (Jul)	$109.24/bbl	+$3.52 (+3.33%)	Same Hormuz escalation fear
CBOT Corn	ZCN6 (Jul)	455'2 ¢/bu	−12'2 (−2.62%)	Dollar strength; China summit underwhelmed
CBOT Soybeans	ZSN6 (Jul)	1177'2 ¢/bu	−15'2 (−1.28%)	Marketing-year-low export sales; disappointing trade news
COMEX Copper	HGN6 (Jul)	$6.2895/lb	−$0.3220 (−4.87%)	Stagflation fears hit industrial demand outlook; long liquidation

The week's macro backdrop

Two inflation prints in three days set the tone. April CPI came in at +3.8% YoY 1 — the highest since May 2023 and above the +3.7% Dow Jones consensus. Energy accounted for more than 40% of the monthly gain, with gasoline up +5.4% MoM and the national average near $4.50/gallon 2. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, put it plainly: "For the first time in three years, inflation is eating up all wage gains. This is a setback for middle-class and lower-income households and they know it." 2

Wednesday's PPI landed harder. April wholesale inflation hit +6.0% YoY — the largest annual gain since December 2022 — with the monthly print of +1.4% running nearly three times the +0.5% consensus 3. Energy drove roughly three-quarters of goods price gains, but services surged +1.2% as tariff costs began feeding through. David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said: "Inflation is sticky and accelerating. The Hormuz crisis is aggravating the problem, but this goes way beyond oil." 3

The market's response was swift: the DXY dollar index gained every single trading day, closing Friday at 99.28 — a weekly advance of +1.34% 4. The 10-year Treasury yield rose +13.6 bps to 4.595% 4. Market-implied odds of a rate hike by year-end surged from near zero to roughly 39% after the PPI print.

Two institutional milestones added to the uncertainty. The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair on May 14 (54 votes) 5, with Jerome Powell's term as chair ending Friday. Powell was elected Fed Chair Pro Tempore and remains as a governor. Warsh, a Trump ally who has previously favored lower rates, now faces his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 with a fresh dot plot and a market pricing in rate hikes rather than cuts. The April FOMC had already produced the most divided vote since 1992 — 8–4, with three regional presidents (Logan-Dallas, Hammack-Cleveland, Kashkari-Minneapolis) objecting to the easing bias in the forward guidance 5.

One counterweight: April industrial production rose +0.7% MoM 6, the largest gain in over a year, suggesting the real economy is absorbing the energy shock better than feared so far. Less reassuring: preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 48.2 — a new record low 5.

Gold: −3.02% to $4,543.6

The June contract (GCM6) opened at $4,654.5 and fell steadily through the session, settling at $4,543.6/oz — down $141.7 (−3.02%) — on volume of 161,086 contracts 7. The intraday low of $4,513.8 briefly tested the lower end of the three-month range ($4,128.5 low on Mar 23 to $5,474.4 high on Mar 2) 8. Friday's close sits 17.5% below the March 2 all-time high.

The mechanism is straightforward: hot CPI and PPI pushed 10-year TIPS real yields to 1.78% 9, which historically suppresses gold. Yet the gold-real yield 30-day rolling correlation has structurally shifted to +0.18 (baseline: −0.45), meaning gold and real yields are now moving in the same direction more often than not — a sign that structural buyers have partially decoupled the price from rate signals 9.

Those structural buyers remain active. The PBOC (People's Bank of China) bought 8 tonnes in April — its 18th consecutive month of additions, bringing official holdings to 2,322 tonnes (9% of reserves) 10. Global central banks purchased 244 tonnes in Q1 (+17% QoQ, +3% YoY), led by Poland NBP (+31t), Uzbekistan (+25t), and Kazakhstan (+12t) 10. Physical bar-and-coin demand hit 474 tonnes in Q1 (+42% YoY) — the second-highest quarter on record — while global gold ETF holdings rose to 4,137 tonnes (historic third-highest) with April net inflows of $6.6 billion across all regions 10.

The practical tension heading into next week: the structural bid from central banks and Asian physical buyers has not disappeared, but the dollar and real-yield tailwind from hot data is a real-time headwind. $4,500 is the cited technical support level by market watchers; a close below it on heavy volume would be the first meaningful test of whether the structural buyers step in at lower prices.

Crude oil: WTI +4.44% to $105.66, Brent +3.33% to $109.24

WTI's June contract (CLM6) hit a three-month high of $106.00 intraday before settling at $105.66 (+$4.49, +4.44%) 11. The low was $101.48. Brent's July contract (BZN6) settled at $109.24 (+$3.52, +3.33%), with the Brent-WTI July spread at $8.08/bbl 12.

The immediate catalyst: Trump publicly rejected an Iran peace proposal during the week, calling the ceasefire "on massive life support" — reversing the modest risk-off premium oil had surrendered in prior sessions. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since March 2, following the US-Israel strike on Iran 13.

The supply picture in the IEA's May Oil Market Report is stark 13:

Global supply fell another 1.8 mb/d in April to 95.1 mb/d, bringing the cumulative loss since February to 12.8 mb/d
OECD inventories drew down 146 mb in April (−4.9 mb/d); combined March-April draw of roughly 250 mb
2026 demand now forecast to contract 420 kb/d to 104 mb/d (1.3 mb/d below pre-war projections)
IEA warned: "further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period"

The gap between OPEC+ quota and actual delivery is no longer a compliance question — it is a physics question. IEA data shows Saudi Arabia producing 6.98 mb/d against a quota of 10.17 mb/d; Iraq 1.35 mb/d against 4.2 mb/d; Kuwait 0.57 mb/d against 2.6 mb/d 13. Effective OPEC-9 spare capacity is 0.02 mb/d — essentially zero.

Against this backdrop, the OPEC+ seven-nation May 3 decision to add 188,000 bpd in June 14 is, as Rystad analyst Jorge Leon put it, "less about adding barrels and more about signaling that OPEC+ still calls the shots." 14 The UAE, which formally exited OPEC on May 1 after nearly 60 years and announced a $55 billion Adnoc expansion plan 15, was not party to the June quotas.

US inventory data confirmed the domestic tightness. The EIA's May 13 weekly report (week ending May 8) showed: commercial crude drew 4.3 mb to 452.9 mb (vs. −2.1 mb expected); Cushing fell 1.7 mb to 27.4 mb; gasoline drew 4.1 mb; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was drawn another 8.6 mb — the seventh consecutive week of SPR extraction, totaling 31.3 mb 16. The curve structure tells the same story: June WTI at $105.66 vs. December at $83.30 — a $22.36 backwardation across six months 11.

Corn and soybeans: WASDE tailwind met by dollar headwind

Both grain contracts pulled back Friday after a volatile week centered on the May 12 WASDE release.

CBOT Corn (ZCN6, Jul) settled at 455'2 ¢/bu (−12'2, −2.62%) 17, giving back gains from earlier in the week. Total open interest reached a contract record 1,915,099 as of May 14 17, reflecting elevated positioning across the crop year.

CBOT Soybeans (ZSN6, Jul) settled at 1177'2 ¢/bu (−15'2, −1.28%) 18, after hitting a two-year high earlier in the week following the WASDE.

The USDA's May 2026 WASDE (released May 12) established the 2026/27 new-crop baseline 19:

Crop	2026/27 US production	Ending stocks	Farm price
Corn	15.995B bu (−6% vs. record 2025/26)	1.957B bu	$4.40/bu
Soybeans	4.435B bu (+4.1% YoY)	310M bu	$11.40/bu
Winter wheat	1.048B bu (−25% YoY; lowest since 1965)	—	$6.50/bu

Global corn ending stocks came in at 277.54 million tonnes — the lowest since 2013/14 19. December corn is trading near $5.02 and November soybeans above $12, which Brady Huck of Empower Ag Trading called "rewardable levels producers need to be taking advantage of." 20

Friday's selloff had two drivers. First, the Trump-Xi Beijing summit produced an expectation of "double-digit billions" in annual US agricultural purchases over three years 21, but the structural tariffs — China still levies 35% on US agricultural goods — remain in place 21. Markets initially lifted on the headline, then gave back. Second, the latest weekly export sales data showed soybean net sales at just 102,100 tonnes — a marketing-year low, with an unknown buyer canceling 104,500 tonnes 22; corn sales fell 50% week-over-week to 684,800 tonnes 22.

Planting pace is ahead of schedule — corn at 57% vs. the five-year average of 52%; soybeans at 49% vs. 36% 23 — but the acreage advantage is increasingly undercut by the farm economics. An AFBF survey of 5,700 farmers found roughly 70% cannot afford the full fertilizer dose required for their 2026 crop 24. NOLA urea has moved from ~$470/short ton before the Hormuz closure to current levels well above $700, with NDSU modeling a peak of $784/st under a "Contested Transit" scenario — and $996/st if the conflict extends 25. The urea-to-corn affordability ratio stands at 174 bu/st — versus a 2022 peak of 110 and a long-run average of 79 25. Corn prices are lower now than in 2022 while fertilizer costs are heading toward new highs — that ratio difference is the actual pain level on the ground.

Copper: −4.87% to $6.2895 — largest single-day drop of the week

The July COMEX contract (HGN6) plunged $0.3220 (−4.87%) to $6.2895/lb on volume of 68,402 contracts 26 — the steepest single-session move across all six markets. The selloff came just 48 hours after copper hit an all-time COMEX high of $6.7160 on May 13, leaving the market down 6.35% in two sessions 27.

The proximate trigger was the same hot CPI/PPI data that pressured gold — stagflation fears weigh on industrial demand expectations. But the copper-specific setup amplified the move: Managed Money net long positions had risen to 88,517 contracts (a 20-week high) as of May 12 26, leaving a large speculative position exposed to any bearish catalyst. Friday's session appears to have involved significant long liquidation — open interest data for May 15 is not yet confirmed.

The underlying supply picture remains structurally constrained. Chile's Q1 output fell 5.8% YoY to 1.216 million tonnes: Codelco −7.5%, BHP's Escondida −9.3%, Spence −34.4% 28. Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) cut its 2026 production guidance from 380-420kt to 290-330kt after Q1 concentrate output fell 54% YoY 29. Copper concentrate spot treatment charges (TC/RC) have collapsed below −$100/tonne — unprecedented territory — meaning smelters are paying miners to process ore, not the other way around 29.

A second-order Hormuz risk: approximately 50% of global seaborne sulfur transits the strait, and sulfur is essential to sulfuric acid used in SX-EW copper leaching (which accounts for ~20% of global refined copper output). China's sulfuric acid exports fell 47% in January-February 2026, and Bloomberg reported — though no official document has confirmed — that China may halt acid exports from May 2026 30. A copper trader in Shanghai summarized the risk: "Sulfuric acid is now becoming the most important factor for SX-EW copper production, with shipment disruptions [from the Middle East], and a drawdown of inventories threatening copper production in DRC and Chile." 29

Exchange inventory drawdowns confirm physical demand has been absorbing available supply. SHFE copper stocks fell to 181,333 tonnes (lowest since January; −5.6% WoW) 30, and LME stocks stand at 166,125 tonnes — down from the March peak of 385,275 tonnes 30. China's Q1 grid capex rose 37% YoY 31, providing a structural demand floor. Friday's move looks more like a speculative flush than a fundamental reversal — but with TC/RCs at record lows and the sulfuric acid overhang unresolved, the supply case is fragile in either direction.

Cross-market read

Friday's session drew a clean line through the commodity complex: oil up because the Hormuz closure is getting worse; everything else down because the inflation those same oil prices are causing is killing rate-cut hopes.

Gold and copper faced the identical macro headwind — a stronger dollar, rising real yields, collapsing Fed easing expectations — but from different starting points. Gold is in a structural bull market propped by central bank buying that has partially insulated it from rate signals; the selloff was sharp but still leaves gold 10% above its March 23 three-month low. Copper had run to an all-time high on speculative positioning and Chinese demand optimism, and the positioning unwind was therefore more violent.

The agricultural complex faces a unique paradox: record-breaking planting pace and constructive WASDE yields on one side, fertilizer costs that are structurally worse than the 2022 Ukraine shock on the other. The WASDE numbers assume full fertilizer application rates that ~70% of US farmers currently say they cannot afford.

The key event for all five markets over the next two weeks: the June 16-17 FOMC — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, with a fresh dot plot at a moment when rate-hike odds have gone from near zero to roughly 31% in under a month.

Cover image generated.